[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 26 10:25:42 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The currrently going on coronal
hole effect seems to be declining. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 640 km/s to 580 km/s during the
UT day today and the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) also stayed close
to the normal value showing minor fluctuations (upto +/-4nT)
almost the whole day today. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened on
26 November and then gradually decline. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22332322
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville 10 22332322
Learmonth 13 32333332
Camden 8 22232222
Canberra 8 2231----
Hobart 9 22332222
Casey(Ant) 15 4---3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3232 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 7 Quiet
28 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the coroanl hole, that is currently
in geoeffective position, may keep the geomagnetic activity
slightly enhanced upto unsettled levels on 26 November. The
geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline
to quiet levels on the following days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be possible on 26 November especially
at mid and high latitude locations due to weak ionisation
in the ionosphere and some left over effect of a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10 to 30% with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov -38 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Nov -35 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
28 Nov -32 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions
on 26 November. Some improvements in conditions may be
possible after that.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 80600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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