[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 25 10:22:56 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels today as well. The currrently going on coronal hole
effect is still going strong. The solar wind speed
increased from 470 km/s to 650 km/s between 0700UT and
2100UT today and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) also showed minor to mild (upto +/-5nT)
fluctuations during this period today. The effect of this
coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind stream
strengthened on 25 November and then gradually decline.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22222332
Darwin 7 21222322
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 11 22223432
Camden 8 21222331
Canberra 9 22222332
Hobart 7 11222331
Casey(Ant) 16 3-423342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3332 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
26 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible.
27 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The effect of the coroanl hole, that is currently
in geoeffective position, may keep the geomagnetic activity
enhanced to unsettled levels on 25 November. The geomagnetic
activity is then expected to gradually decline to
quiet levels on the following days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be possible on 25 and possibly
26 November especially at mid and high latitude locations
due to weak ionisation in the ionosphere and some left over
effect of a coronal hole. Periods of minor to mild depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may also be observed
on low latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov -44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10 to 40% with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov -42 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Nov -38 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Nov -35 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on
23 November and is current for interval 24-25 November.
Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions on 25 and possibly
26 November. Some improvements in conditions may be possible
after that.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 619 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 91200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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