[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 6 10:43:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions were average over the last 24
hours and are expected to remain so over the next 2-3 days. IMF
Bz fluctuated north-south with moderate level extended Bz south
06-13UT. Vsw was low, slowly declining from 320-280km/sec. No
active regions on solar disc or X-ray events. A coronal emission
was observed off the eastern limb ~0100 by SOHO spacecraft but
does not appear to be earthward directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22221011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 12121002
Camden 2 11121001
Canberra 3 21122001
Hobart 3 11221011
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 5 Quiet
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetically quiet day globally and expected to remain
so for 2-3 days in absence of extended period of IMF Bz southwards.
High latitudes unsettled before 12UT today due to extended moderate
Bz southwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions have been observed
at low and mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. Expect similar
conditions for at least the next 2 days. High latitudes variable
but often disturbed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -12 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed.
08 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 5-7 November. Depressions in Maximum
Usable Frequencies (MUFs) observed across Pacific, Equatorial/PNG
and Australian regions due to lack of solar ionising EUV and
active regions. Slightly eased from previous days as geomagnetic
conditions quieten after coronal hole passed. Depressions compared
with predicted monthly averages are expected to continue for
the next 2 days at least. Spread-F observed across wide regions,
particularly pre-dawn.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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