[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112222
      Darwin               6   22112222
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            6   11112232
      Camden               4   11112121
      Canberra             5   12112221
      Hobart               3   00112221
      Casey(Ant)           8   22322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1100     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov     5    Quiet 
06 Nov     5    Quiet 
07 Nov     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
06 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
07 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Nov   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed at
      Vanimo; 15-45% depressed at Niue.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
06 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
07 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 4 November 
and is current for interval 5-7 November. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    35800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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