[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 16 09:32:37 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The effect
of the coronal kept the solar wind stream strengthened, but
the effect seems to have started to weaken as the solar wind
speed gradaully decreased from 620 to 520 km/s over the UT
day today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations between +/- 4 nT
almost the whole day today. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to further weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for
the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 8 23223301
Camden 5 22222201
Canberra 5 22221201
Hobart 5 22122210
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 63 (Active)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 3434 2443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
levels with some periods of unsettled levels recorded at
some high latitude stations. Similar level of geomagnetic
activity is expected on 16 June. Geomagnetic activity is
then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels over
the next 24 hours and then stay at quiet levels for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitudes on
16 June due to some possibility of enhancement in
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day with periods of
minor to significant degradations in HF conditions.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations in HF
conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 16 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions with some possibility of
minor degradations on some locations in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions on 16 June due to some possibility of enhancement
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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