[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 15 09:28:01 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The
anticipated effect of the coronal hole kept the solar
wind stream strengthened with solar wind speed reaching
upto around 600 km/s. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations
between +/- 10 nT almost the whole day today. The effect
of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind
stream strengthened on 15 June as well.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 33343332
Darwin 11 23232332
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 19 33343443
Camden 13 23342332
Canberra 14 -3342332
Hobart 13 22343332
Casey(Ant) 14 32333-42
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1011 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 13 Mostly unsettled to active.
16 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Jun 5 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Enhancements in geomagnetic activity upto active
levels were recorded today due to the anticipated effect
of a recurrent corohal hole. Similar level of geomagnetic
activity is expected on 15 June. Geomagnetic activity is
then expected to gradually decline to unsettled and then
quiet levels over the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude and
some mid latitude locations on 15 June due to an anticipated
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions with some possibility of minor
degradations on some locations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
on 15 June due to anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 20200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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