[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 10 09:18:53 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1348UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: The Solar wind jumped from 380 km/s to 440km/s. The 
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly 
southward during the last 24 hrs, ranging from +5 to -6 nT. AR960 
has greatly diminished in area and complexity and it would be 
expected that the solar flare activity would also decrease over 
the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12232112
      Darwin               5   1222211-
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            8   22332112
      Camden               5   11232111
      Canberra             5   11232111
      Hobart               7   11232113
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              71   (Active)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3311 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Jun     6    Quiet 
12 Jun     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions for the next 3 days however, 
there may be periods of unsettled conditions due to periods of 
southward Bz orientation. The effect should be minimal however 
due to seasonal influence. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jun    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    49200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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