[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 10 09:18:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/2F 1348UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The Solar wind jumped from 380 km/s to 440km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly
southward during the last 24 hrs, ranging from +5 to -6 nT. AR960
has greatly diminished in area and complexity and it would be
expected that the solar flare activity would also decrease over
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12232112
Darwin 5 1222211-
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 22332112
Camden 5 11232111
Canberra 5 11232111
Hobart 7 11232113
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 71 (Active)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3311 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jun 6 Quiet
12 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions for the next 3 days however,
there may be periods of unsettled conditions due to periods of
southward Bz orientation. The effect should be minimal however
due to seasonal influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 49200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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