[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 31 09:36:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the
next three days. Solar wind speed is approximately 610km/s and
should start to slowly decrease later in the UT day. However,
in two days time on 02 August another coronal hole will reach
its geoeffective position and ACE should detect another increase in
the solar wind velocity. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 5 nT with neither the southward
or northward orientation dominating.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 33322221
Darwin 8 23321221
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 15 33------
Camden 7 3-311221
Canberra 9 33322221
Hobart 10 23412222
Casey(Ant) 10 33322321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3423 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active levels
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 2 days and a chance of isolated active periods on 02
August due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Ionograms did not show many night time traces
however, when available they were near predicted
values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted sporadic E in the low and high latitudes, particularly
in the local early morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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