[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 30 09:43:45 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next few
days. Solar wind velocity increased from 380km/s at 0000UT to
be ~600km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field increased in
magnitude to 10nT at the beginning of the UT day, but then
gradually declined to 5nT with only brief southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 34334223
Darwin 11 34223222
Townsville 15 34333233
Learmonth 21 35334234
Camden 12 23234223
Canberra 15 24334223
Hobart 11 23234122
Casey(Ant) 16 34423233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active levels
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the 2 days with chance of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
31 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for low to mid latitudes
with some depressed periods observed for low latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes.
Similar conditions expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 65% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ
regions with enhancements during local evening. Northern AUS
regions experienced depressed MUF's during local day. Disturbed
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
expected for the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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