[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 26 09:49:03 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind
speed continued to decline from 320km/s to be 300km/s at the
time of this report. A recurrent coronal hole is expected bring
increased solar wind parameters in the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 4 22111111
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 2 01121001
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 10101000
Casey(Ant) 3 11111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected over the next
2 days with possible isolated Active periods due to a recurrent
coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed periods observed for low latitudes and enhancements
for mid latitudes. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Similar
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible disturbed
periods for mid to high latitudes due to an increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jul 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Jul 5 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed again during local day
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and enhanced conditions during
local night for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Enhancements as well
as disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions. These
conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days with
possible disturbed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions due to
anticipated increase in geomagnetic activty.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 14100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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