[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 25 09:40:47 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
With no active regions currently on the disk, solar activity 
is expected to remain very low for the next few days. Solar wind 
speed declined from 380km/s to be 320km/s at the time of this 
report. A recurrent coronal hole is expected bring increased 
solar wind parameters on 26th July. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Townsville           5   12222112
      Learmonth            2   11102100
      Camden               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11100101
      Hobart               2   11101101
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1111 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     5    Quiet 
26 Jul    11    Unsettled 
27 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected until 26th July when 
a recurrent coronal hole may increase activity levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for low to mid 
latitudes with some isolated depressed periods. Disturbed
conditions expected for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Jul     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Jul     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day for Northern 
Aus regions and enhanced conditions during local night for Southern 
Aus/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions 
during the later half of the UT day. Otherwise mostly normal 
HF conditions for all regions over the last 24 hours. Similar 
conditions are expected over the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    47700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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