[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 23 09:26:36 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no significant spot regions on the disk solar activity is
expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed is in decline
as we pass out of a coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12120101
Darwin 3 12120111
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 3 22210100
Camden 2 11120000
Canberra 2 02120000
Hobart 2 12121000
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2522 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 5 Quiet
24 Jul 5 Quiet
25 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity returned to quiet levels yesterday
(22 Jul) following the previous coronal hole related activity.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three
days (23 Jul to 25 Jul). A recurrent coronal hole aproaching
solar central meridian may increase activity levels after 25
July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs remained near predicted monthly values in the winter
hemisphere and were in general depressed in the summer hemisphere.
Continuing MUF depressions expected in the summer hemisphere.
Some spread-F possible at higher latitudes in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The daytime ionosphere on 22 Jul showed some MUF
depressions to 20%, particularly in the N.Aus/ Equatorial
regions. The nighttime ionosphere continued to show MUF
enhancements, particularly in the S/Aus/NZ regions. Strong
sporadic E layers were again observed at a number of stations.
The ionosphere is expected to show depressions over the next
2-3 days in the absence of elevated geomagnetic activity and
solar flux from a spotless sun. MUF depressions up to 20% are
possible. Night time spread-F observed in the S.Aus/NZ region
is also expected to continue 23 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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