[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 22 09:48:22 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
With no significant spot regions on the disk solar activity is
expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed remains elevated
due to a coronal hole, the main geoeffective part of which appears
to have passed. A small coronal hole somewhat closer to the solar
equator may result in another short-lived increase in solar wind
speed 22 Jul after which the solar wind speed should steadily
decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 33223122
Darwin 8 33222112
Townsville 11 24223231
Learmonth 13 34233232
Camden 9 33223121
Canberra 10 33323122
Hobart 12 33324222
Casey(Ant) 10 33232132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 0133 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 5 Quiet
24 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole wind stream kept geomagnetic
activity at mostly Unsettled levels over the UT day (21 Jul).
Periods of Minor Storm conditions were observed at high latitudes
particularly during the night and early morning hours. The most
significant geoeffective part of the wind stream appears to have
passed and geomagnetic activity is expected to decline. Mostly
Quiet-Unsettled conditions expected 22 Jul and Quiet from 23
Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at mid to high
latitudes 21 Jul in response to continuing enhanced geomagnetic
activity. MUFs remained near predicted monthly values in the
winter hemisphere and were in general depressed in the summer
hemisphere. Degraded HF possible in the next 24 hours due to
continuing unsettled geomagnetic conditions, particularly at
higher latitudes. Continuing MUF depressions expected in the
summer hemisphere. Some spread-F possible at higher latitudes
in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Jul 2 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul 0 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Continuing enhanced geomagnetic activity resulted in
variable degraded HF conditions in the S.Aus/ NZ/Antarctic regions
on 21 Jul. Strong sporadic E layers were observed at Vanimo and
Hobart. MUFs however remained near predicted monthly values as
the winter ionosphere responded positively to the enhanced
geomagnetic activity. The ionosphere is expected to become
depressed over the next 2-3 days as the geomagnetic activity
subsides and the solar F10.7 flux continues to fall. MUF
depressions up to 20% are possible. Night time spread-F observed
in the S.Aus/NZ region is also expected to continue 22 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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