[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 20 09:21:47 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue with no significant flaring likely in the
next 24 hours. The solar wind speed is currently very low (<400km/s)
and the NS component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains
relatively stable. A recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream
is expected to arrive some time today (20 Jul) increasing solar
wind speed and turbulence. The recurrent coronal hole appears
to be in decline and is significantly smaller and further from
the solar equator than on previous rotations. On its last rotation
the solar wind speed reached a maximum of less than 600km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 3 22111011
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 1 01110001
Camden 0 01100000
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 01101000
Casey(Ant) 2 11111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 12 Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
21 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled
22 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day (19
Jul). A recurrent coronal hole is expected to arrive some time
today (20 Jul) causing generally Unsettled conditions with isolated
Active periods 20 Jul and mostly Quiet-Unsettled conditions 21-22
July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly depressed HF conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours. Degraded HF possible in the
next 24 hours due to enhanced geomagnetic activity, particularly
at higher latitudes. Some spread-F likely at higher latitudes
in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: With the exception of the S.Aus/NZ region which showed
enhanced MUFs overnight, the ionosphere in the Aus region was
mostly normal to 20% depressed on 19 Jul. Expect mostly normal
MUFs 20 July, although degraded HF conditions possible due to
enhanced geomagnetic activity, particularly in the S.Aus/NZ region.
Some further depressions, up to 20%, are likely 21-22 July. Night
time spread-F was observed in the S.Aus/NZ region, also expected
to continue 20 Jul. Sporadic-E was observed at some stations
in the Aus region during the local day, particularly Darwin and
Hobart.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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