[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 19 09:41:23 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue with no significant flaring likely in the
next 24 hours. The solar wind speed is currently very low (<400km/s)
and the NS component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains
stable. A recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected
to arrive later today (19 Jul) increasing solar wind speed and
turbulence. The recurrent coronal hole appears to be in decline and
is significantly smaller and further from the solar equator than on
previous rotations. On its last rotation the solar wind speed
reached a maximum of less than 600km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 5 22211112
Learmonth 3 22210000
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 11110011
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
21 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day (18
Jul). A recurrent coronal hole is expected to arrive later today
(19 Jul) causing Quiet-Unsettled conditions 19 Jul and mostly
Unsettled conditions 20 July before a return to Quiet on 21 July.
Periods of Active geomagnetic conditions possible 20 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours, expected to continue. Some spread-F likely at higher
latitudes in the winter hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jul 12 near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 6 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: With the exception of the S.Aus/NZ region which showed
enhanced MUFs overnight, the ionosphere in the Aus region was
mostly normal to slightly depressed. Similar conditions are expected
for 19 July with depressions up to 20% likely. Night time spread-F
and sporadic-E were observed in the S.Aus/NZ region, also expected
to continue 19 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 42800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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