[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 17 09:13:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
expected to continue. Region 0963 has declined further in size
and complexity and is not expected to produce significant flaring
in the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined over the
UT day as the Earth moved out of a coronal hole wind stream.
The NS component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains
stable near 0nT. A recurrent coronal hole is currently passing
solar central meridian, well below latitude 0deg. The associated
high speed wind stream may arrive in 3-4 days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 12220121
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 11220011
Hobart 3 11121110
Casey(Ant) 6 23211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4432 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 4 Quiet
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the UT day
(16 July) with the exception of some Unsettled-Active periods
at high latitudes. Expect quiet conditions to prevail next 2
days (17-18 July). Unsettled conditions possible 19-20 July due
to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF were observed at high latitudes
over the UT day, otherwise normal conditions. Expect mostly normal
HF conditions over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions expected in the Australian
region. Periods of night time spread F possible, particularly
at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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