[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:31:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has declined from around 600 km/s
early in the day to around 500 km/s at 23 UT. The NS component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has settled. There is still
a chance of C class flares over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with active levels observed at Learmonth early in the day.
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 33332111
Darwin 6 32222111
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 13 44332121
Camden - --------
Canberra 9 33332011
Hobart 8 33331011
Casey(Ant) 8 33232111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 118 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 23 2124 4463
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible degraded communications at high latitudes today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values observed at Casey with
depressions to 30% 02-07 UT. Night sporadic E also
observed at Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time spread F observed at all latitudes. Night
spread F expected to continue and is likely to degrade communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 75600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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