[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 31 10:44:07 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with just
a C1.0 flare from region 940 at 0737UT. Solar wind speed remained
high, ranging between 650km/s to 700km/s over the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
Bz, fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the UT day with no sustained
southward periods. Solar activity is expected to low for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 17 24334333
Darwin 14 23334323
Townsville 13 23333332
Learmonth 20 34335333
Camden 13 23333332
Canberra 14 24333332
Casey(Ant) 24 35543333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Camden 80 (Active)
Canberra 94 (Minor storm)
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 36 3232 6753
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic levels observed over the
last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected for
the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Some depressed periods observed for low to mid latitudes
with otherwise normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours. High
latitudes experienced disturbed conditions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days, with isolated depressed periods
for low to mid latitudes and disturbed conditions for high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day for
Equatorial, Northen AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions with otherwise
normal ionospheric support. Disturbed conditions observed for
Antarctic regions. Isolated MUF depressions of 10%-20% possible over
the next 24 hours for all regions, with disturbed conditions for
Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 232000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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