[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 30 10:45:17 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
C3.4 flare from region 940 at 1656UT as well as a C1.5 at 2248UT.
Solar wind speed increased from 360km/s at 0000UT to be 700km/s
at the time of this report, due to high speed solar wind stream
from a coronal hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) Bz, fluctuated between +/-15nT throughout
the UT day with a sustained southward period between 1210UT-1410UT
reaching a max of -20nT. Solar activity is expected to low for
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 22 23335533
Darwin - --------
Townsville 18 23335432
Learmonth 27 23435553
Camden 19 22325532
Canberra 17 22324533
Casey(Ant) 19 3---4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 65 (Active)
Canberra 84 (Minor storm)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 30 Active to Minor storm
31 Jan 25 active
01 Feb 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and
is current for interval 29-30 January. Quiet to Minor Storm levels
observed over the last 24 hours due to an high speed solar wind
stream from a equatorial positioned coronal hole. Mostly Active
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible Minor
Storm periods. Unsettled to Active conditions for 31Jan and 01Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
31 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for low to mid latitudes
observed over the last 24 hours, with MUF depressions of 20%
during the first half of the UT day. Disturbed conditions observed
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
24 hours with possible disturbed periods for mid-high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ regions
during local day as well as Equatorial regions. Disturbed conditions
observed for Anatarctic regions. MUF depressions of 20% possible
over the next 24 hours for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions due to the increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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