[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 26 10:49:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with a
significant C6.3 flare at 0714UT. Similar to yesterdays mostly
backside CME, todays flare was not considered a front side event,
but an asymmetric full halo event occuring on the east limb that
is likely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed continues to decline
from 360km/s at 0000UT to be 330km/s at the time of this report.
Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) fluctuated between +/-3nT throughout the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate over
the next few days as the source of recent CME activity rotates
onto disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11221212
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 4 01121212
Camden 4 11121121
Canberra 3 10121111
Casey(Ant) 9 23331212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 6 Quiet
27 Jan 12 Unsettled
28 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. These
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours, after
which a possible increase to Unsettled conditions with isolated
Active periods for day 2 and 3 of this forecast due to recent
CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with some notable depressed periods at low to mid latitudes,
along with instances of sporadic E. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours. Disturbed conditions for high to mid latitudes
possible on 28Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal daytime ionospheric support for all regions
observed in last 24 hours with notable depressions during local
evenings. Sporadic E observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days, with the chance of disturbed conditions for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions around 28Jan due to recent
CME activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 37200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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