[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 25 10:38:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
a few minor B-class flares from region 939. There was also a
long duration B9.0 flare at 1452UT most likely from returning
region 933 that is yet to rotate onto disk. An associated CME
is also visible in the LASCO imagery from 1518UT onwards. Solar
wind speed continues to decline from 390km/s at 0000UT to be
360km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuated between
+/-3nT throughout the UT day. An increase in solar activity is
possible over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 2 111100--
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 11200211
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 00110102
Casey(Ant) 8 23-32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 6 Quiet
27 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests quiet conditions can be expected
for the next few days. No geoeffective coronal holes or earth
directed CME's observed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last
24 hours with some notable depressed periods over all latitudes.
Instances of sporadic E observed for low to mid latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for all regions observed
in last 24 hours. Night-time depressed periods observed for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions as well as some disturbed periods for
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Sporadic E also noted
for these regions as well. Similar conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 71800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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