[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20

COMMENT: There is a slight chance for isolated C-class flares 
from regions 10933 and 10935. Solar wind speed has increased 
to 380 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has fluctuated between +/- 5nT over the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22321222
      Darwin               6   22211222
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            8   32311321
      Camden               6   12311221
      Canberra             6   12311221
      Casey(Ant)          11   23432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Camden               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0200 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     6    Quiet 
11 Jan     6    Quiet 
12 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet 
to unsettled levels for the next several days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next several days. Isolated cases of sporadic E have been 
noted in the Australian region over the last several days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values
12 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms 
at times. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    23300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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