[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 9 10:08:10 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: There is a slight chance for isolated C-class flares
from regions 10933 and 10935. Solar wind speed has decreased
to 320 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has fluctuated between +/- 2nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12212111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 12221111
Camden 3 11112011
Canberra 4 21112021
Hobart 3 11112011
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 6 Quiet
11 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
to unsettled levels for the next several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
the next several days. Sporadic E has been noted in the Australian
region over the last several days particularly in the earily
morning hours, expect this trend to continue.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
the Aus/NZ region. Sporadic-E conditions may affect HF comms
at times, particularly noted in the earily morning hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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