[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 15 10:39:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed stayed elevated between 600 and 750 km/s
almost the whole UT day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to
moderate (mostly between +/-5 nT) fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value throughout the day. Solar activity is
expected to remain very low for the next few days. The effect
of the coronal is expected to keep the solar wind stream
strenghened for two more days, with a gradual decline though.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled.
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 33233332
Darwin 13 33233332
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 16 432-----
Camden 11 32233232
Canberra 14 33333332
Casey(Ant) 16 4--43232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 94 (Minor storm)
Canberra 80 (Active)
Hobart 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 2221 1445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods.
16 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The strengthening of the solar wind speed and
periods of negative Bz due to the coronal hole effect,
contributed to the enhancements in the geomagnetic activity
levels today. The coronal hole effect and hence the
geomagnetic activity is expected to show a gradual decline
over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with some possibility
of minor to moderate degradations and MUF depressions on
high latitude locations on 15 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 8 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations across the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days with some possibility of minor degradations and
MUF depressions on 15 February in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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