[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 2 10:28:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains elevated but has continued its steady
decline to around 550 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be
low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22332122
Darwin 7 21231123
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth - --------
Camden 8 22332122
Canberra 8 22331122
Casey(Ant) 12 3--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 3333 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity continues to decline with the recent
equatorial coronal hole region rotating beyond a geoeffective
position. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are possible over
the next 24 hours, however, while solar wind speed remains elevated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were enhanced at low latitudes, particularly
during local late afternoon and night time hours. Conditions
were normal at mid and high latitudes. Widespread sporadic E
was observed late in the UT day at low and mid latitudes blanketing
the lower HF frequencies. HF conditions are expected to be normal
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 22 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced for Equatorial and
Northern Australian regions, particularly during local late afternoon
and night time hours. Ionospheric support was normal throughout
all other regions. Strong and persistent sporadic E was observed
late in the UT day at a number of Equatorial, Northern and Southern
Australian stations, blanketing the lower HF frequencies. Ionospheric
support is expected to be normal over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 683 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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