[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 2 10:28:14 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remains elevated but has continued its steady 
decline to around 550 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be 
low for the next few days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332122
      Darwin               7   21231123
      Townsville           9   22332222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               8   22332122
      Canberra             8   22331122
      Casey(Ant)          12   3--32233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Camden              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   3333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Feb     5    Quiet 
04 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity continues to decline with the recent 
equatorial coronal hole region rotating beyond a geoeffective 
position. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are possible over 
the next 24 hours, however, while solar wind speed remains elevated. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were enhanced at low latitudes, particularly 
during local late afternoon and night time hours. Conditions 
were normal at mid and high latitudes. Widespread sporadic E 
was observed late in the UT day at low and mid latitudes blanketing 
the lower HF frequencies. HF conditions are expected to be normal 
over the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    22    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    18    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced for Equatorial and 
Northern Australian regions, particularly during local late afternoon 
and night time hours. Ionospheric support was normal throughout 
all other regions. Strong and persistent sporadic E was observed 
late in the UT day at a number of Equatorial, Northern and Southern 
Australian stations, blanketing the lower HF frequencies. Ionospheric 
support is expected to be normal over the next 24 hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 683 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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