[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 1 10:36:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remains elevated but has seen a steady decline
to around 630 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) Bz, fluctuated between +/-4 nT throughout
the UT day with no sustained southward periods. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 23333332
Darwin 12 22333323
Townsville 13 23333332
Learmonth 12 332-----
Camden 12 23333322
Canberra 13 23333332
Casey(Ant) 15 3--33333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 51 (Unsettled)
Camden 62 (Active)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 4543 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 12 Unsettled
02 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline from Unsettled
to Quiet levels over the next few days as the equatorial coronal
hole region rotates beyond a geoeffective position. Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are possible over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were enhanced at low latitudes, particularly
during local night time hours and normal at mid and high latitudes.
The expected depressions due to increased geomagnetic activity
did not eventuate. Over the next few days HF conditions are expected
to be normal with a chance of depressions at high latitudes over
the next 24 hours due to continuing geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced for Equatorial and
Northern Australian regions, particularly during local night
time hours and normal throughout all other regions. The expected
depressions due to increased geomagnetic activity did not eventuate.
Over the next few days ionospheric support is expected to be
normal with a chance of depressions for Antarctic regions over
the next 24 hours due to continuing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 662 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 213000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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