[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 27 09:20:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low to low over the next few days.
A new solar region, 10953, has rotated onto the solar disk and
may produce isolated C-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component was mostly northward over the last 24 hours
ranging from -3 to 5 nT. The solar wind is presently is steady
around 450 km/s. Expect a recurrent coronal hole to reach geoeffective
position late in the UT day on 27 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22122212
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 22113322
Camden 4 11112211
Canberra 3 10022211
Hobart 4 11121211
Casey(Ant) 8 23321-12
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3100 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
29 Apr 24 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at mostly
quiet levels until late in the UT day on 27 April, when effects
of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal
hole are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
29 Apr Fair Fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Possible mild HF depressed conditions between 28-29
April due to geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of mild depressions 10-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values for the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Possible mild depressed conditions between 28-30 April
due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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