[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours and is 
expected to remain very low to low over the next few days. A 
new solar region, 10953, has rotated onto the solar disk and 
may produce isolated C-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component was mostly northward over the last 24 hours 
ranging from -5 to 5 nT. The solar wind is presently is steady 
around 460 km/s. Expect a recurrent coronal hole to reach geoeffective
position in two days time late in the UT day on 27 April. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212211
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           9   23222322
      Learmonth           11   23------
      Camden               4   22112201
      Canberra             3   22102200
      Hobart               4   22202201
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              63   (Active)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2110 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     4    Quiet 
27 Apr     6    Quiet 
28 Apr    28    active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at mostly 
quiet levels until late in the UT day on 27 April, when effects 
of a high speed solar wind stream induced by a recurrent coronal 
hole are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed 10-20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    12    near predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr     8    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    64500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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