[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 24 09:28:50 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There
are no spots on the visible solar disk. The solar wind speed
has declined rapidly from its peak of 550km/s to be ~400km/s
near the end of the UT day. After some large fluctuations in
the first half of the day, the interplanetary magnetic field
Bz component has also settled to be 0+nT near the end of the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 34420110
Darwin 9 34311211
Townsville 12 34421221
Learmonth 17 45520200
Camden 8 34310101
Canberra 7 34310100
Hobart 6 33310100
Casey(Ant) 13 44431110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2222 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions continued to be Unsettled with
Active periods in response to the ramping up of the solar wind
speed until the solar wind peak at around 09 UT. Following this
geomagnetic activity quickly dropped back to Quiet levels where
it remained for the remainder of the day. Some Minor Storm periods
were observed at high latitudes in the first half of the UT day.
Expect Quiet-Unsettled conditions today (24 April) returning
to Quiet (25-26 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal today
(24 April). Some variable HF conditions may be experienced at
low latitudes, particularly during the local day. Minor MUF
depressions are possible at higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values over UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 7 near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 7 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was generally
stronger than expected over the past 24 hours. MUFs were enhanced
by 30% at most Australian and NZ stations throughout the local
night. Some MUF depressions were observed during the day at
Equatorial and N.Aus stations. Whilst MUF depressions are possible
in the Australian region today (24 April) they are only expected
to be mild.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 62300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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