[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 23 09:31:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain very low over the next few days. There
are no visible spots on the solar disk. The anticipated high
speed coronal hole wind stream arrived at ~22/0020 UT with a
small impulse and a subsequent increase in solar wind speed to
elevated for the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 33232222
Darwin 9 32232222
Townsville 11 33232322
Learmonth 18 33253333
Camden 9 3-232222
Canberra 9 22232322
Hobart 8 22232222
Casey(Ant) 10 33232222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Camden 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 11 Quiet to unsettled
24 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
25 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 22 April and
is current for interval 22-23 April. Geomagnetic conditions over
the UT day ranged from Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods, particularly at high latitudes. The increased geomagnetic
activity is in response to the arrival of a high speed coronal
hole wind stream at ~22/0020UT (time at the ACE satellite).
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly Unsettled
today (23 April) gradually returning to Quiet by 25 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day, with
the exception of the Equatorial and Low latitude regions which
experienced some MUF depressions late in the local day / early
evening. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions may result in degraded
HF at high latitudes and variable HF conditions at low latitudes
today (23 April) and some minor MUF depressions, particularly
at the higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 5 about 10% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 9 near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the UT day, with the exception of the N.Aus/PNG regions
which experienced MUF depressions of up to 30% near local
afternoon/early evening. More widespread MUF depressions are
possible in the Australian region today (23 April) in response to
yesterday's elevated geomagnetic activity, however they are only
expected to be mild.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 23100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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