[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 4 09:53:00 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity began to decline from 620km/s at 0000UT to
be 560km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT throughout the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be
very low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 23331321
Darwin 9 232---31
Townsville 8 232---22
Learmonth 13 34320431
Camden 10 23331321
Canberra 9 23330321
Hobart 9 23330321
Casey(Ant) 18 44432422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Camden 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 4553 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours,
with Quiet conditions for 05Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for all latitudes with some isolated enhancements for low latitudes.
Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. MUF depressions of 20%
possible over the next 24 hours, with a return to mostly normal
conditions on 05Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime enhancements observed for Equatorial/Northern
AUS regions. Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced depressed conditions
over the last 24 hour, with disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Depressed HF conditions expected for Southern AUS/NZ
and Anarctic regions for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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