[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 09:39:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind velocity increased from 400km/s at 0000UT to be 550km/s
at the time of this report, with the arrival of coronal hole
wind stream. Bz has had numerous southward periods with the maximum
being -12nT at 01UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 18 33334334
Darwin 15 33333333
Townsville 18 33334334
Learmonth 26 53334345
Camden 20 33444324
Canberra 21 33444334
Hobart 18 33444323
Casey(Ant) 21 44333344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Camden 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
04 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of the
anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Unsettled to Active
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible Minor
Storm periods at high latitudes. Return to mostly Quiet
conditions for 04Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with some enhancements for low to mid latitudes and degraded
conditions for high latitudes. A change in HF conditions is
expected over the next 2 days with possible depressed MUFs for
mid to high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime enhancements observed for Equatorial/Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
region. Possible depressed conditions expected for Southern Aus/NZ
regions and similar condtions for all other regions for the next
2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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