[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: There is the slight chance of isolated C-class flare 
activity. Solar wind speeds have declined slowly from the mildly 
elevated levels observed during 13 September, down to approximately 
350km/s. Solar wind speeds may increase again to mildly elevated 
levels during 15-16 September due to a small coronal hole rotating 
into a geoeffective position. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11131000
      Darwin               4   22121012
      Learmonth            3   12122000
      Culgoora             3   01131000
      Camden               3   11131000
      Canberra             3   11131000
      Hobart               3   11131000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1321 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Sep    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
17 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over 
the next few days with isolated active periods possible due to 
a small coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions have been observed 
at all latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced MUFS have been observed for 
the Australian/NZ region for 14 September. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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