[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: There is the slight chance of isolated C-class flare 
activity. Solar wind speeds were mildly elevated during the period 
05-14UT on 13 September, reaching approximately 500km/s. Solar 
wind speeds have since declined to approximately 400km/s. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   13222001
      Darwin               6   23221012
      Learmonth            4   13221010
      Culgoora             4   13212001
      Camden               5   23222001
      Canberra             5   13222001
      Hobart               5   13312000
      Casey(Ant)           8   22422111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1021 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep     6    Quiet 
15 Sep     6    Quiet 
16 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A period of mildly elevated solar wind speeds resulted 
in some unsettled levels of activity during 13 September. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected over the next few days. A recurrent 
weak coronal hole may lead to unsettled conditions in 3 days 
time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions have been observed 
at all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Sep    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted montly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced MUFS have been observed for 
the Australian/NZ region for 13 September. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    78000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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