[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 28 10:38:31 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov:  82/23

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to around 550 km/s. New 
region 927 is presently located at N08E59. Both region 926 and 
927 produced B class flares over the 24 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Darwin               6   22221221
      Townsville           7   22232221
      Learmonth            8   22232231
      Culgoora             7   22231221
      Camden               6   12231121
      Canberra             7   22232121
      Hobart               6   22232120
      Casey(Ant)          12   ---42232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov: 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   3443 2133     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
29 Nov     6    Quiet 
30 Nov     5    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Fair           Fair           Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-normal   
29 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-normal   
30 Nov      Fair           Fair           Normal        

COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs to 30% likely for the next couple 
of days. Spread F may degrade communications. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Nov   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted to 20% depressed between 05 and 16 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Blanketing sporadic E
      at Townsville 05-09 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted to 30% depressed from 00-09 UT and
      14-18 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov     0    Low and mid latitudes MUFs are likely to be near 
                predicted monthly values to 30% depressed at times.
                High latitude MUFs are expected to be near predicted
		monthly values. 
29 Nov     5    Depressions to 20% likely at low and mid latitudes. 
                High latitude MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
                monthly values. 
30 Nov     5    Depressions to 20% likely at low and mid latitudes. 
                High latitude MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
                monthly values. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 631 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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