[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 27 10:38:12 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated around 580 km/s due 
to the passage of the recurrent coronal hole. Region 926 (S08E60) 
has produced several B class flares over the last couple of days 
but remains magnetically simple. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23323123
      Darwin               7   22222123
      Townsville          10   23223223
      Learmonth           14   33333233
      Culgoora             8   2332310-
      Camden               9   23323122
      Canberra             9   23323122
      Hobart               9   23323122
      Casey(Ant)          11   ---33223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov: 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Camden              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   2422 3443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
29 Nov     5    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Fair           Fair           Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Fair           Fair           Normal        
28 Nov      Fair           Fair           Normal        
29 Nov      Fair           Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs up to 40% occurred at low and mid 
latitudes. The ionosphere is expected to be slow to recover and 
depressions are likely to continue at low and mid latitudes for 
the next few days. High latitude MUFs appeared unaffected by 
the solar and resulting geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo and Port
      Moresby with depressions to 30% around 05-16 UT.
      Enhanced at Niue by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      about 20% early in the UT day and between 13-19 UT at
      Darwin.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      around 01-08 UT and 18-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov     0    Low and mid latitudes MUFs are likely to be near 
                predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% 
                at times. High latitude MUFs are expected to 
                be near predicted monthly values. 
28 Nov     0    Low and mid latitudes MUFs are likely to be near 
                predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% 
                at times. High latitude MUFs are expected to 
                be near predicted monthly values. 
29 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 599 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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