[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 27 10:38:12 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated around 580 km/s due
to the passage of the recurrent coronal hole. Region 926 (S08E60)
has produced several B class flares over the last couple of days
but remains magnetically simple.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 23323123
Darwin 7 22222123
Townsville 10 23223223
Learmonth 14 33333233
Culgoora 8 2332310-
Camden 9 23323122
Canberra 9 23323122
Hobart 9 23323122
Casey(Ant) 11 ---33223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov:
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Camden 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 76 (Active)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 2422 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
28 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
29 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Fair Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Fair Fair Normal
28 Nov Fair Fair Normal
29 Nov Fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs up to 40% occurred at low and mid
latitudes. The ionosphere is expected to be slow to recover and
depressions are likely to continue at low and mid latitudes for
the next few days. High latitude MUFs appeared unaffected by
the solar and resulting geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo and Port
Moresby with depressions to 30% around 05-16 UT.
Enhanced at Niue by 15-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
about 20% early in the UT day and between 13-19 UT at
Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
around 01-08 UT and 18-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 0 Low and mid latitudes MUFs are likely to be near
predicted monthly values to depressed by 30%
at times. High latitude MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values.
28 Nov 0 Low and mid latitudes MUFs are likely to be near
predicted monthly values to depressed by 30%
at times. High latitude MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values.
29 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 599 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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