[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 20 10:09:46 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low on 19 November. The
solar wind speed remained between 380 and 440 km/s for most
part of the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained normal to slightly
negative during the first half and slightly positive in the
second half of the UT day today. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 4 22221011
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 12121001
Culgoora 5 12221121
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 12121000
Hobart 3 12221001
Casey(Ant) 7 2---3212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
22 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions noted on most locations.
This trend may continue for the next several days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The Australian region has shown mild depressions in
MUFs today. This trend may continue for the several days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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