[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: The solar wind is approximately 400 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11211111
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Townsville           6   22222121
      Learmonth            2   10111012
      Culgoora             4   11211211
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             2   11111011
      Hobart               1   00120000
      Casey(Ant)          11   233-3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     4    Quiet 
20 Nov     5    Quiet 
21 Nov     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
20 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
21 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Mild depressions noted in the low and mid latitudes 
this trend may continue for the next several days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
20 Nov     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Nov     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: The Australian region has shown mild depressions, this 
trend may continue over the next several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    32500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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