[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 23 09:42:12 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with only a B6.4 class
event from region 884 at 1952UT. Activity is expected to remain
at these very low levels, as the current sunspots are not showing
any signs of growth and remain magnetically simple. Bz,
the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity
steadily increased from 420km/s at 0000UT to be 500km/s at the
time of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 6 21112123
Darwin 5 21111123
Learmonth 6 21112123
Culgoora 4 21111112
Camden 7 22112232
Canberra 5 21112113
Hobart 3 20002212
Casey(Ant) 10 33222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 3012 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours as solar wind paramters increased slightly.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
possible Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes, with some depressed periods for
low latitudes. Disturbed HF conditions observed for high latitudes.
Normal HF conditions expected for all regions over the next 2
days but with further disturbed periods for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 20 near predicted monthly values
24 May 20 near predicted monthly values
25 May 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Northern Aus/Equatorial regions
experienced some depressed periods during local day, with mostly
normal conditions for the rest of the UT day. Disturbed ionospheric
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Normal HF conditions
are expected for most regions over the next 2 days, with further
disturbed Antarctic ionospheric conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 91700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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