[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 22 09:42:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no major flare
events. Activity is expected to remain at these very low levels,
as the current regions on disk are not showing any signs of growth,
are both small in overall sunspot size and are magnetically simple.
Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-4 nT over the last 24 hours. Solar wind
velocity declined from 520km/s at 0000UT to be 420km/s at the
time of this report.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 4 21220121
Darwin 5 21220131
Learmonth 6 22220131
Culgoora 3 11120121
Camden 4 11121122
Canberra 4 2-120121
Hobart 3 20120121
Casey(Ant) 11 33322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2223 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 6 Quiet
23 May 6 Quiet
24 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed HF conditions observed
for high latitudes and notable sporadic E. Similar conditions
for all regions are expected over the next 2 days with improving
conditions for high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 20 near predicted monthly values
23 May 25 near predicted monthly values
24 May 25 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Southern Aus/NZ
regions as well as Northern Aus. Disturbed ionospheric conditions
observed for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected,
as well as improving Antarctic ionospheric conditions, over the
next 2 days while there is no significant solar flare activity
and quiet geomagnetic levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list