[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 21 09:09:45 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three
days. SOHO ACE shows the solar wind at 350 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Darwin 2 21111100
Learmonth 1 11011000
Culgoora 1 11101000
Camden 6 22212122
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 10001001
Casey(Ant) 2 12111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 4 Quiet
22 Jun 6 Quiet
23 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to be to quiet over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Noted periods of no MUF, other wise normal
during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 84700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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