[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be very low for the next three 
days. SOHO ACE shows the solar wind at 425 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has settled to neutral. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Darwin               2   21100001
      Learmonth            1   21000000
      Culgoora             1   21000000
      Camden               6   32112122
      Canberra             1   21000000
      Hobart               0   11000000
      Casey(Ant)           5   32211101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1233 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun     6    Quiet 
21 Jun     6    Quiet 
22 Jun     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to be to quiet over 
the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions for the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Noted periods with no MUF during local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 569 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   180000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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