[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Region 892 
(S06E14) produced a few low B-class flares. Due to the effect 
of the coronal hole the solar wind speed remained between 600 
and 670 km/s for most part of the UTday today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor 
to moderate fluctuations on both sides of the normal value 
throughout the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
very low to low levels for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33433322
      Darwin              13   33333322
      Learmonth           19   33453332
      Culgoora            12   33432222
      Camden              12   33432222
      Canberra            18   34533322
      Hobart              16   34433322
      Casey(Ant)          18   33433-43
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun : 
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24   4443 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
10 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The currently going on coronal hole effect is 
expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced upto 
active levels on 09 June. The activity level is expected 
to decline to quiet to unsettled levels thereafter. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions 
may be observed at high and some mid latitude locations 
on 09 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near prediceted monthly values with occassional
      enhancements and periods of degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    17    near predicted monthly values 
10 Jun    19    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with 
some possibility of minor to moderate degradations in 
southern regions on 09 June. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 620 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   275000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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