[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 8 10:19:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 89/33 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Region
892(S01E51) produced several B-class flares. Due to the
effect of the coronal hole the solar wind speed remained
between 600 and 650 km/s almost the whole day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value throughout the day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at low levels for the next 3 days with
some possibility of C-class activity from region 892.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 33333323
Darwin 13 23333332
Learmonth 15 33333333
Culgoora 13 33333223
Camden 12 23333223
Canberra 13 33333223
Hobart 13 33333223
Casey(Ant) 17 34332433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Canberra 71 (Active)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Culgoora 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 116 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23 2244 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 18 Unsettled to active
09 Jun 14 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
10 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The currently going on coronal hole effect is
expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced upto
active levels for the next two days. The activity level
is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels
thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed during the next two days especially at high
and some mid latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
enhancements and degraded coditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
09 Jun 17 near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions for the next three days with some possibility
of minor to moderate degradations in southern regions on 08
and 09 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 96800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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