[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 26 09:23:42 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar region 901 has produced several B-class flares
over the past few days, however is unlikley to be the source
of any significant activity. Solar wind speeds may increase slightly
over the next few days as the result of a small coronal hole
rotating into a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 4 22111111
Learmonth 3 21211011
Culgoora 1 11101000
Camden 4 22112111
Canberra 3 22102011
Hobart 2 11102100
Casey(Ant) 6 22212122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1011 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 6 Quiet
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds may increase slightly over the next
few days as the result of a small coronal hole rotating into
a geoeffective position. There is the slight chance of isolated
active levels during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for equatorial
latitudes during local day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced greater than 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for northern
Australian regions during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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