[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 06
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 25 10:00:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: A region on the east limb produced a C-class flare at
1501UT on 24 July, however, significant flare activity is unlikely.
A transient change occurred at approximately 2330UT on 23 July
in a couple of the solar wind parameters. This could indicate
the possible glancing impact from the CME observed on 20 July
and which was expected to impact the Earth on 24-25 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11212211
Darwin 5 22222201
Learmonth 6 11223301
Culgoora 5 22212211
Camden 4 11122211
Canberra 4 10212300
Hobart 2 00112210
Casey(Ant) 5 11212311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated
active periods.
26 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and
is current for interval 24-25 July. A transient change occurred
at approximately 2330UT on 23 July in a couple of the solar wind
parameters. This could indicate the possible glancing impact
from the CME observed on 20 July and which was expected to impact
the Earth on 24-25 July. No significant activity has yet eventuated
with no significant activity expected over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for equatorial
latitudes during local day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values during local
day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 15 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions are possible for northern
Australian regions during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 21100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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