[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 23 09:50:40 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: New region 901 produced several B-class flares during
the past 24 hours, however, is unlikely to be the source of any
significant flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 3 12220002
Learmonth 2 01220001
Culgoora 1 01110001
Camden 5 12112122
Canberra 1 01110001
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 4 12221101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 5 Quiet
24 Jul 20 Unsettled to active with the slight chance of
minor storm periods.
25 Jul 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and
is current for interval 24-25 July. The CME observed on 20 July
may have a glancing impact on the Earth during 24-25 July and
produce mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels during this
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
23 July with slightly degraded conditions possible for equatorial
latitudes during local day. HF conditions are expected to be
slightly degraded for high-mid latitudes for 24-25 July as the
result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Jul 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
23 July with slightly degraded conditions possible for northern
Australian regions during local day. HF conditions are expected
to be slightly degraded for southern Aus/NZ regions for 24-25
July as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 287 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 11800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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