[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13





-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11110000
      Learmonth            0   10100000
      Culgoora             0   01000001
      Camden               4   11111212
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11111010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     5    Quiet 
23 Jul     5    Quiet 
24 Jul    20    Unsettled to active with the slight chance of 
                minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 July and 
is current for interval 24-25 July. The CME observed on 20 July 
may have a glancing impact on the Earth during 24-25 July and 
produce mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels during this 
period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
22-23 July, with slightly degraded conditions possible for high-mid 
latitudes for 24-25 July as the result of anticipated mildly
elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
22-23 July, with slightly degraded conditions possible for southern 
Australian/NZ regions for 24-25 July as the result of anticipated 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    13600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"