[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity should remain at low levels next three 
days. Solar wind speed has declined to nominal levels. Solar 
radio noise has increased slightly as active regions 897 and 
898 rotate towards solar central meridian. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Learmonth            0   00100000
      Culgoora             0   01100000
      Camden               6   22212122
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               0   00100000
      Casey(Ant)           7   22222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1210 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    15    Quiet. Active periods late in UT day. 
04 Jul    20    Unsettled to active 
05 Jul    20    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are at nominal levels and the 
geomagnetic field is quiet. A recurrent coronal hole wind stream 
is anticipated to arrive late in the UT day today, bringing active 
intervals for the following two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions day one. Possible 
periods of disturbance mainly local night at mid to high latitudes 
days two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by up to 80% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    20    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Evening and night time spread-F observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Variable daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Possible disturbances mainly local night hours S 
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days two and three due to a recurrent 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    45600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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