[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12212111
      Darwin               3   12211011
      Learmonth            1   11111000
      Culgoora             3   12111011
      Camden               7   22212213
      Canberra             2   11112000
      Hobart               2   11112010
      Casey(Ant)           9   23322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2222 3112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul     7    Quiet 
03 Jul    21    active 
04 Jul    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 60% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    95000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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